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    挂牌量近10万套网签量降1/4 北京二手房议价空间加大——中国菏泽网
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    挂牌量近10万套网签量降1/4 北京二手房议价空间加大

    2019-09-30 08:35:52 来源:
     

    ??

    ???北京房地产市场的调整仍在继续,“金九”落空已成事实。中新经纬客户端近日走访北京二手房市场发现,部分购房者观望情绪加重,推迟买房或换房时间的意愿浓厚,二手房市场的议价空间正在加大。一位房产经纪人说:“挂牌价是挂牌价,实际成交价都可以谈,一套房子谈下来二三十万都很正常。”

      贝壳找房的数据显示,北京挂牌在售二手房房源数量明显增加,达到了9.7万套,但交易上却是量价齐跌,9月份二手房的网签量同比下降近1/4,市场处于低温状态。专家认为,楼市“银十”很难再现,市场的低温态势可能持续到春节前。

     ? 为了吸引购房者看房,一些大型房产交易平台上,打着“急售”“业主诚心出售”“双节特惠特价房源”“低于市场价30万”等标签的二手房房源并不少见。业主降价的同时,房产经纪公司也着急,某房产交易平台则推出“全民挑房节”,部分房源的中介费还有一定力度的优惠。

      某平台上,朝阳区北三环以里某小区一套三居室的挂牌价降至了约6.4万元/平方米,明显低于该小区约7.5万元/平方米的均价。负责该房源的经纪人郭栋(化名)告诉中新经纬客户端,该房源位于顶楼,且距离上次交易不足两年,税费较高,加上业主希望早点卖出去,报价就低了一些。

      而在临近小区的一个70平方米的三居室,挂牌价达到了8.1万元/平方米。但郭栋称,这个业主也着急出售,价格可以再谈,“这个小区前不久成交了一套两居室,挂牌价为460万元,后来客户与业主多次协商,最终以420余万元成交。如果确定想要的话,我们都可以帮客户和业主谈,一套房子谈下来二三十万都很正常。”

      即便是主动降价,购房者的置业热情也不高。郭栋称,现在看房的客户都不太着急,会看很多套房子,慢慢对比,都期望价格能够再降一些。贝壳研究院27日提供的数据显示,9月北京链家客户成交周期环比延长5天至89天,为2017年以来的最高值;房源成交周期保持在100天的高位,业主继续选择降价促成交,调价中降价比例增至90.5%。

      贝壳研究院首席市场分析师许小乐指出,市场持续低迷后,买卖双方的预期均有下降,新入市的业主和客户开始减少。9月,北京链家二手房新增房源量及客源量分别环比下降3.4%和6.3%,带看量环比下降2.2%。

      量价齐跌

      对于周边二手房市场的表现,郭栋并不愿意用“低迷”等字眼来形容。“从这一年多来看,市场整体还是比较平稳,没有出现大起大落。”但郭栋也坦言,当前周边二手房的房价已经比高位有了1万元/平方米左右的回调。

      成交量与价格出现下调,已经是不争的事实。贝壳研究院称,9月北京二手房网签约1.14万套,环比下降5.6%,同比下降25.6%,北京链家二手房实时成交环比下降6.9%。在换房需求释放难、刚需占比提升(400万以下物业成交占比环比增加3.1个百分点)的情况下,均价下跌幅度加大,9月成交均价为59686元/平,环比下跌2.5%,同比下跌3.5%,近四个月以来跌幅持续扩大,市场处于低温状态。

      而据我爱我家研究院统计,截至23日,北京9月份二手住宅的网签量为8275套,环比下降7.01%,同比下降33.14%。同时,我爱我家自身的实时交易量环比下降2.90%,同比下降23.53%,成交均价为55890元/㎡,环比下跌1.17%。与8月相比,北京9月份二手房市场的量价仍在小幅下行。

      中原地产首席分析师张大伟对中新经纬客户端表示,北京房地产市场有个月网签1.2万套的基本线,月网签低于1.2万套,市场肯定是低迷的,而如果不足1万套,价格更是会下调。

      除了严厉的调控致使市场降温外,房源供应量的井喷也加重了购房者观望情绪。近日,“北京二手房库存两年暴涨246%”的说法引发关注。据媒体报道,2019年9月北京二手房挂牌总量为91076套,而2018年9月二手房挂牌49296套,2017年11月挂牌25941套。

      对于在售房源大幅增加,张大伟分析称,主要是因为之前不允许挂出的房源再次挂牌出售,包括高单价房源、商住类房源;同时,二手房交易周期的拉长,也让挂牌的房源数量增多。

      另一方面,新房市场特别是限竞房供应量的持续增加,也对二手房的交易产生影响。张大伟说:“北京新建住宅市场库存比2018年同期的5万套,增加了1.7万套,加上现在限竞房与二手房的总价款比较接近,二手房不降价就很难卖出。”

      专家:楼市难再冲新高

      在即将过去的9月,北京新房市场的表现较为一般。我爱我家研究院数据显示,截至23日,9月北京新建商品住宅(不含保障房、商住房、共有产权房)成交2382套,环比8月同期下降0.92%,比去年同期下降2.02%,市场同环比基本持平。共有产权房则成交861套,环比增长168.22%,同比下降31.61%。

      事实上,我爱我家研究院认为,从2016~2019年北京新房、二手房下半年的月度网签数据来看,能称得上“金九”的也只有2016年。2016年9月,北京二手住宅网签30516套,新建商品住宅(不含保障房、商住房、共有产权房)网签5364套,明显高于其它月份;2017年、2018年,无论新房还是二手房,交易量都没有比当年的7、8月或11、12月多出多少;至于2019年,截至23日,9月的新房、二手房交易量都低于8月同期,“金九”无从谈起。

      张大伟称,自2009年以来,楼市的表现很大程度上要受到调控政策的扰动,“金九银十”特征已经不明显,同时,今年热点城市的房地产市场开始逐渐下行,购买力很难再支撑楼市继续冲高。

      许小乐对中新经纬客户端表示,根据往年成交数据来看,国庆期间二手房成交并不高,因此,10月份北京二手房市场成交量大概率将保持在1~1.1万套,价格持平或小幅下跌。楼市“银十”很难出现,市场的低迷态势可能持续到春节前。

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