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    楼市调控紧 “金九银十”难——中国菏泽网
    菏泽网首页 | 今日齐鲁 | 国内 | 国际 | 社会 | 财经 | 房产 | 汽车 | 娱乐 | 健康 | 专题 | 图片 | 论坛 | 县区 | 菏泽日报 | 牡丹晚报

    楼市调控紧 “金九银十”难

    2019-09-30 08:36:50 来源:
     

    ??? 主持人刘伟杰:在上市公司三季报即将披露之际,本报结合三季报业绩预告和半年报相关数据,采访业内专家,分析宏观经济政策对上市公司三季报可能产生的影响。

      房地产市场在经历了年初的“小阳春”行情后,于5月份开始掉头降温,业内专家预计,今年房地产市场的“金九银十”或成色不足。

      楼市调控坚持“房住不炒”

      上海易居房地产研究院提供的数据显示,9月1日至9月26日期间,全国47个热点城市新建商品住宅成交面积达1765万平方米,较8月份同期有所反弹。具体来看,4个一线城市新建商品住宅成交面积达169万平方米,环比8月份同期小幅上涨3%;11个二线城市新建商品住宅成交面积达1080万平方米,环比上涨14%;32个三四线城市新建商品住宅成交面积达516万平方米,环比上涨9%。

      “虽然9月份新房销量受开发商加大推盘力度等因素影响,较8月份成交量有小幅反弹,但整体上看,反弹动力依然不足。”上海易居研究院智库中心总监严跃进在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示。

      严跃进认为,9月份上述47城的成交量之所以出现反弹,还有一个原因在于8月份的新房成交基数偏低。从原因上分析,在2019年7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议明确表态“不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段”后,居民对房地产市场的心理预期已发生改变;此外,目前居民加杠杆空间有限。虽然房企受融资难度加大影响,在今年下半年加大了推盘节奏和力度,然而在楼市调控整体偏严的背景下,预计今年楼市“金九银十”成交量难以出现大幅增长。

      回看今年以来的楼市调控脉络,《证券日报》记者发现,针对房企融资方面的收紧可以说是重要内容。

      先有5月17日银保监会下发《关于开展“巩固治乱象成果 促进合规建设”工作的通知》,要求严格规范房地产信托业务,强调不得向“四证”不全、开发商或其控股股东资质不达标、资本金未足额到位的房地产开发项目直接提供融资;随后,银保监会又于7月6日针对部分房地产信托业务增速过快、增量过大的信托公司,开展了约谈警示。此后,国家发改委于7月12日对外发布《关于对房地产企业发行外债申请备案登记有关要求的通知》,进一步规范房企海外发债。

      7月30日,中共中央政治局召开会议时着重强调,不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段。央行也在同一周内“点名”房地产业,包括在银行业金融机构信贷结构调整优化座谈会上明确,房地产行业占用信贷资源较多,各类银行要转变传统信贷路径依赖,合理控制房地产贷款投放;在央行2019年下半年工作电视会议上提出,要坚持“房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的”定位,落实房地产长效管理机制,按照“因城施策”的基本原则,持续加强房地产市场资金管控。

      58安居客房产研究院首席分析师张波在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,从今年以来监管层的一系列政策出台和导向上看,我国房地产市场正坚定不移地向“房住不炒”轨道上前行,并在保持楼市稳定性的同时有效遏制了楼市中的非理性行为。对于房企而言,资金无疑是其发展的源头活水,但随着融资难度的逐步上升,已成为其首要面对的挑战,而积极转变发展思路也显得势在必行。

      直接影响房企规模化

      同花顺iFinD数据显示,按照申万一级行业进行统计,截至9月29日,A股已有14家上市房企发布第三季度业绩预告,其中,预增或略增的仅有3家,预减或略减的有2家,续亏、首亏及扭亏的共7家。此外,还有2家房企的第三季度业绩预告显示不确定。

      “可以看出,目前宏观调控政策对于房企的规模化影响非常直接。”张波分析称,在融资环境收紧的情况下,高度依赖资金的房企不得不选择暂缓或更为理性的拿地方式,而为了加快资金回笼,不少房企更是推出多种促销手段。值得注意的是,如果房企销售情况不达预期,其资金回笼压力将进一步增大,在影响规模化的同时,也会对利润产生压缩作用。

      张波认为,从长远来看,房企转型或成趋势。

      在弘阳集团总裁蒋达强看来,目前房地产中小企业冲规模的窗口期已经关闭,弯道超车的机会很小。所以,对于未来房企投资项目的评判标准,应以流动性为首位,其次是安全性,最后才是收益性。

      除了更加注重风险管理外,仁恒集团上海公司常务副总经理沈浦阳认为,未来实体经济将会获得更多的流动性支持,从房企角度来说,依赖土地红利“躺着赚钱”的机会已经过去,只有提高产品品质和服务才是生存之道。

      凡未与本网签订书面协议的网站,不得转载本网及菏泽日报、牡丹晚报所属各媒体电子及平面的稿件与图片,特此郑重声明。技术服务QQ:284955423
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